Starting tomorrow.
Call me partisan since it's Joe Biden's favorite word. Call me unoriginal since everyone started making malarkey jokes after the vice presidential debate. But it just makes sense that a website called Malark
O
Meter measures something called malarkey. Amirite?
Starting tomorrow.
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aboutMalark O blog published news and commentary about the statistical analysis of the comparative truthfulness of the 2012 presidential and vice presidential candidates. It has since closed down while its author makes bigger plans. authorBrash Equilibrium is an evolutionary anthropologist and writer. His real name is Benjamin ChabotHanowell . His wife calls him Babe. His daughter calls him Papa. what is malarkey?
It's a polite word for bullshit. Here, it's a measure of falsehood. 0 means you're truthful on average. 100 means you're 100% full of malarkey.
Details
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what is simulated malarkey?
Fact checkers only rate a small sample of the statements that politicians make. How uncertain are we about the real truthfulness of politicians? To find out, treat fact checker report cards like an experiment, and use random number generators to repeat that experiment a lot of times to see all the possible outcomes.
Details
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malark O glimpse
Can you tell the difference between the 2012 presidential election tickets from just a glimpse at their
simulated
malarkey
score
distributions?
fuzzy portraits of malarkey
Simulated distributions of malarkey for each 2012 presidential candidate with 95% confidence interval on either side of the
simulated
average malarkey score. White line at half truthful. (Rounded to nearest whole number.)
fuzzy portraits of ticket malarkey
Simulated distributions of collated and average malarkey for each 2012 presidential election ticket, with 95% confidence interval labeled on either side of the
simulated
malarkey score. White line at half truthful. (Rounded to nearest whole number.)
Comparisons
Simulated probability distributions of the difference the malarkey scores of one 2012 presidential candidate or party and another, with 95% confidence interval labeled on either side of simulated mean malarkey. Blue bars are when Democrats spew more malarkey, red when Republicans do. White line and purple bar at equal malarkey. (Rounded to nearest hundredth.)
2012 prez debatespresidential debates
Simulated probability distribution of the malarkey spewed by individual 2012 presidential candidates during debates, with 95% confidence interval labeled on either side of simulated mean malarkey. White line at half truthful. (Rounded to nearest whole number.)
aggregate 2012 prez debate
Distributions of malarkey for collated 2012 presidential debate report cards and the average presidential debate malarkey score.
2012 vice presidential debateoverall 2012 debate performance
Malarkey score from collated report card comprising all debates, and malarkey score averaged over candidates on each party's ticket.
(Probabilities rounded to nearest percent.)
2012 debate self comparisons

observe & report
Below are the observed malarkey scores and comparisons form the
malarkey scores
of the 2012 presidential candidates.
2012 prez candidates
TruthOMeter
only (observed)

candidate  malarkey 

Obama  44 
Biden  48 
Romney  55 
Ryan  58 
The Fact Checker only (observed)
candidate  malarkey 

Obama  53 
Biden  58 
Romney  60 
Ryan  47 
Averaged over fact checkers
candidate  malarkey 

Obama  48 
Biden  53 
Romney  58 
Ryan  52 
2012 Red prez vs. Blue prez
Collated bullpucky
ticket  malarkey 

Obama/Biden  46 
Romney/Ryan  56 
Average bullpucky
ticket  malarkey 

Obama/Biden  48 
Romney/Ryan  58 
2012 prez debates
1st presidential debate
opponent  malarkey 

Romney  61 
Obama  56 
2nd presidential debate (town hall)
opponent  malarkey 

Romney  31 
Obama  33 
3rd presidential debate
opponent  malarkey 

Romney  57 
Obama  46 
collated presidential debates
opponent  malarkey 

Romney  54 
Obama  46 
average presidential debate
opponent  malarkey 

Romney  61 
Obama  56 
vice presidential debate
opponent  malarkey 

Ryan  68 
Biden  44 
collated debates overall
ticket  malarkey 

Romney/Ryan  57 
Obama/Biden  46 
average debate overall
ticket  malarkey 

Romney/Ryan  61 
Obama/Biden  56 
the raw deal
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